Strong corporate earnings don’t always tell the full story of the economy. This week’s outlook examines the widening gap between U.S. corporate earnings and broader economic growth. Rising profit margins and investment in AI infrastructure are supporting company results, while pressure on household spending power and higher borrowing costs raise questions about how long that momentum can continue. 3 Key Takeaways Corporate Earnings Are Outpacing Economic Growth U.S. corporate

Economic headlines often paint a picture of strength, but successful investors know that understanding what lies beneath the surface is just as important as following the headlines themselves. As markets continue to navigate inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty, evaluating the quality and sustainability of economic growth remains essential. In this week's market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal, who e

Higher long-term interest rates are creating pressure across the economy, but that doesn’t necessarily mean central bank policy rates will follow the same path. ​ This week’s outlook examines the growing gap between market expectations for interest rates and what economic conditions may ultimately support. Persistent government borrowing, higher bond yields and pressure on interest-sensitive sectors are adding another layer of complexity to the outlook in both the U.S. and Ca

An optimistic outlook can depend on a lot going right. This week, attention turns to the assumptions behind the U.S. economic outlook. Inflation is expected to ease while employment remains strong, but higher energy costs, elevated borrowing rates and geopolitical uncertainty continue to create a more complicated picture. In Canada, softer retail activity may provide another indication that growth cooled after a stronger second quarter. 3 Key Takeaways The U.S. Outlook Rel

The U.S. and Canada are facing many of the same global pressures, but their economic conditions are telling different stories. ​ This week, attention turns to central bank policy as higher energy prices add to inflation concerns in the U.S., while Canada continues to balance relatively stable core inflation against trade uncertainty and softer economic conditions. The contrast highlights how similar external pressures can have very different implications across economies. 3 K

Higher long-term borrowing costs are creating new fiscal challenges for some of the world’s largest economies. This week’s outlook looks at the U.S. and Japan, where rising bond yields are increasing the cost of servicing government debt after years of unusually low rates. With slower population growth, aging demographics, and persistent fiscal deficits adding to the picture, the relationship between economic growth and borrowing costs is becoming increasingly important. 3 K

Canada–U.S. trade relations remain in focus following a difficult period of negotiations, highlighting both the depth of the economic relationship and the challenges involved in reducing Canada’s dependence on its largest trading partner. ​ This week’s outlook examines the evolving trade environment, the realities surrounding Canada’s diversification efforts, and several key economic developments on both sides of the border. 3 Key Takeaways Canada–U.S. Trade Relations Remain

Political change can influence markets and business expectations, but elections don’t always translate into immediate shifts in policy. This week, attention turns to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and what a potential change in Congress could actually mean for trade, fiscal policy, and the broader economic landscape. For Canada, the implications are particularly relevant as cross-border trade remains an important issue heading toward another round of trilateral negotiat

Uncertainty continues to shape the global economic outlook as geopolitical tensions, energy markets, inflation, and trade negotiations create a wider range of possible outcomes for investors and businesses. This week, attention turns to an increasingly complex global backdrop, where uncertainty in the Persian Gulf is creating a wide range of potential outcomes for energy prices, inflation, and monetary policy. At home, Canada–U.S. trade negotiations add another layer of unce

Canada's export sector delivered an encouraging rebound in the second quarter, providing an important lift to economic growth despite continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and global trade. ​ In this week's market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld examining what's behind Canada's export recovery, and why the strength of the latest numbers should still be viewed with some caution. While energy exports and renewed U.S.

Financial markets continue to navigate an environment shaped by inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty. While central bank decisions often capture the headlines, understanding the reasoning behind those decisions, and recognizing that economic conditions continue to evolve is equally important for investors and business leaders. ​ In this week's market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld, who explores why the Fe

Reliable decisions begin with reliable information. Economic data provides valuable guidance, but understanding how that data is collected, and recognizing when revisions may change the story, is equally important. Looking beyond the headlines allows investors and business leaders to make more informed, long-term decisions. ​ In this week's market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal, who examines why upcoming revisions to C

As markets continue to navigate inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty, one factor remains essential for long-term economic growth: confidence. Businesses make investment decisions when they have clarity about future trade relationships, while investors benefit from stable economic policies that support sustainable growth. In this week's market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld, who examines the importance of

Artificial intelligence continues to reshape industries, investment strategies, and economic expectations. While many view AI as a long-term driver of productivity and growth, its rapid expansion is also creating near-term inflationary pressures through increased infrastructure spending, supply chain demand, and labour market dynamics. In this week’s market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld, who explores how the current wave

Financial markets often react quickly to central bank communications, but not every forecast should be viewed as a roadmap. As economic conditions continue to evolve, investors are reminded that policy expectations can change just as quickly as the data that shape them. In this week’s market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Capital Markets exploring why investors should place greater emphasis on underlying economic fundamentals rather than relying too hea

Housing affordability remains one of the most pressing economic challenges facing Canadians. As policymakers search for solutions to support renters, debates continue around the effectiveness of rent control policies and alternative approaches that may improve affordability while preserving housing supply. In this week's market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal, who examines the long-term implications of rent control poli

Artificial intelligence continues to drive investment, innovation, and market enthusiasm across industries. However, as AI adoption accelerates, investors should also consider the practical challenges that may influence the pace and scale of future growth. In this week’s market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal, who explores why expectations for AI-driven economic growth may be overly optimistic in the short term despite

As investors begin a new month, trade policy and economic growth remain key themes shaping market sentiment. While global events continue to capture headlines, developments surrounding Canada-U.S. trade relations and the future of North American economic cooperation remain important factors influencing business confidence and investment decisions. In this week's market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld, who explores Canada's

As investors continue to navigate an environment marked by geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation concerns, and elevated government debt levels, long-term interest rates remain an important factor shaping economic growth and investment decisions. In this week’s market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld, who examines the forces keeping long-term Treasury yields elevated and the implications for borrowers, businesses, ho