The Week Ahead: Aug 24–28, 2026
Political change can influence markets and business expectations, but elections don’t always translate into immediate shifts in policy.
This week, attention turns to the upcoming U.S. midterm elections and what a potential change in Congress could actually mean for trade, fiscal policy, and the broader economic landscape. For Canada, the implications are particularly relevant as cross-border trade remains an important issue heading toward another round of trilateral negotiations in 2027.
3 Key Takeaways
Political Change May Not Mean Policy Reversal
Even with a shift in control of Congress, reversing tariffs and other executive actions could require significant bipartisan support. Political change may therefore increase oversight and debate without immediately changing the direction of major policies.
Canada–U.S. Trade Remains a Longer-Term Issue
The U.S. midterms may not significantly change the environment for Canada–U.S. trade negotiations. With protectionist policies extending beyond party lines, Canada will continue to navigate an evolving trade relationship as another round of trilateral negotiations approaches in 2027.
Canada's Economy Shows Signs of Improvement
After two negative quarters, Canadian economic growth is expected to rebound strongly in Q2, supported in part by stronger exports. However, manufacturing capacity constraints and continued tariff uncertainty could moderate that momentum in the second half of the year.
Quote of the Week
"The strongest decisions begin with a clear purpose. When you know what matters, the path forward becomes easier to define."
— James Leung
About the Contributor
James Leung
Senior Wealth Advisor & Portfolio Manager, CIBC Wood Gundy; Founder & Director, 6ix Wealth Foundation
James shares market commentary, economic observations, and wealth management perspectives to help investors and business leaders better understand the trends, opportunities, and developments shaping today's financial landscape.
Read the Original Commentary
This article is based on James Leung's weekly market outlook originally shared on LinkedIn and commentary from CIBC Capital Markets.
Read the Full Commentary on LinkedIn →
Disclaimer
This article is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Readers should consult qualified professionals regarding their individual circumstances before making financial decisions.
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