The Week Ahead: Aug 10–14, 2026
Canada's export sector delivered an encouraging rebound in the second quarter, providing an important lift to economic growth despite continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and global trade.
In this week's market outlook, James Leung highlights commentary from CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld examining what's behind Canada's export recovery, and why the strength of the latest numbers should still be viewed with some caution. While energy exports and renewed U.S. demand have contributed to the rebound, tariff pressures, limited manufacturing capacity, and uncertainty surrounding future trade arrangements remain important considerations for Canada's economic outlook.
3 Key Takeaways
Canada's Export Recovery Shows Encouraging Momentum
Canadian exports rebounded strongly in the second quarter, with real export volumes reaching a new high after declining in 2025. While diversification into markets such as China has contributed, exports to the United States remain an important part of the recovery.
Energy Is Emerging as a Source of Strength
Energy has been one of the clearest beneficiaries, with export volumes rising 8% from a year earlier. Access to additional pipeline capacity and LNG projects could further expand Canada's ability to serve both U.S. and overseas markets, while the sector has also remained exempt from U.S. tariffs.
Sustainable Growth Requires More Than a Short-Term Rebound
The outlook remains more challenging for tariff-exposed manufacturers. Steel and lumber exports have yet to fully recover, while manufacturing capacity is already approaching typical operational limits despite production remaining below historical highs. Continued trade uncertainty may also discourage the investment needed to expand Canada's productive capacity.
Quote of the Week
"A strong quarter can create momentum, but lasting growth requires more than momentum. It takes the confidence to invest, the capacity to grow, and the strategy to remain competitive as conditions change."
— James Leung
About the Contributor
James Leung
Senior Wealth Advisor & Portfolio Manager, CIBC Wood Gundy; Founder & Director, 6ix Wealth Foundation
James shares market commentary, economic observations, and wealth management perspectives to help investors and business leaders better understand the trends, opportunities, and developments shaping today's financial landscape.
Read the Original Commentary
This article is based on James Leung's weekly market outlook originally shared on LinkedIn and commentary from CIBC Capital Markets.
Read the Full Commentary on LinkedIn →
Disclaimer
This article is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Readers should consult qualified professionals regarding their individual circumstances before making financial decisions.
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