The Week Ahead: Sep 21–25, 2026
An optimistic outlook can depend on a lot going right.
This week, attention turns to the assumptions behind the U.S. economic outlook. Inflation is expected to ease while employment remains strong, but higher energy costs, elevated borrowing rates and geopolitical uncertainty continue to create a more complicated picture. In Canada, softer retail activity may provide another indication that growth cooled after a stronger second quarter.
3 Key Takeaways
The U.S. Outlook Relies on Several Moving Pieces
The current outlook assumes inflation can move back toward target without a meaningful increase in unemployment. That scenario depends partly on resilient consumer spending, continued AI-related capital investment, lower energy prices and an easing of temporary tariff-related inflation pressures.
Risks Remain Beneath the Optimism
Higher energy prices and uncertainty surrounding the Persian Gulf remain significant variables. The report also points to slower homebuilding, softer business investment outside AI, and the possibility that AI-related capital spending could moderate. These factors leave both growth and inflation outcomes dependent on developments that remain difficult to predict.
Canadian Consumer Activity May Be Cooling
Canadian retail sales are forecast to have declined 0.7% in July, following a stronger June. Higher gasoline prices and a possible reversal of earlier spending gains may have contributed to the slowdown, adding to other signs that economic growth was cooling before new U.S. tariffs took effect in August.
Quote of the Week
"Strong decisions begin by challenging the assumptions behind them."
— James Leung
About the Contributor
James Leung
Senior Wealth Advisor & Portfolio Manager, CIBC Wood Gundy; Founder & Director, 6ix Wealth Foundation
James shares market commentary, economic observations, and wealth management perspectives to help investors and business leaders better understand the trends, opportunities, and developments shaping today's financial landscape.
Read the Original Commentary
This article is based on James Leung's weekly market outlook originally shared on LinkedIn and commentary from CIBC Capital Markets.
Read the Full Commentary on LinkedIn →
Disclaimer
This article is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Readers should consult qualified professionals regarding their individual circumstances before making financial decisions.
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