The Week Ahead: Aug 17–21, 2026
Uncertainty continues to shape the global economic outlook as geopolitical tensions, energy markets, inflation, and trade negotiations create a wider range of possible outcomes for investors and businesses.
This week, attention turns to an increasingly complex global backdrop, where uncertainty in the Persian Gulf is creating a wide range of potential outcomes for energy prices, inflation, and monetary policy. At home, Canada–U.S. trade negotiations add another layer of uncertainty as the August 19 tariff deadline approaches. CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld explores why these unresolved developments are making the economic outlook particularly difficult to navigate.
3 Key Takeaways
Energy Stability May Be Deceptive
Oil markets have become calmer following the decline in active conflict, but the underlying uncertainty has not disappeared. With no clear timeline for the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen, CIBC sees a wide range of possible outcomes for oil prices depending on whether a resolution is reached or disruptions persist.
For investors and businesses, today's relative stability should therefore be viewed within the context of significant geopolitical and supply risks that remain unresolved.
Canada–U.S. Trade Negotiations Take Centre Stage
In Canada, the most consequential development may come from outside the traditional economic calendar. With new U.S. tariffs scheduled to take effect on August 19, attention is focused on whether Canada and the United States can find enough common ground to prevent additional measures and potentially reduce some existing trade barriers.
The outcome could have implications for Canadian industries including autos, metals, metal products, and lumber, making the negotiations particularly important for the broader business environment.
Inflation Requires a Closer Look
Canadian headline inflation is expected to rise to 3.0% in July, largely reflecting higher gasoline prices. Yet the underlying picture is more measured, with core inflation indicators expected to remain around 2%.
That distinction matters. Temporary energy-related increases can influence headline inflation without necessarily signalling the same degree of persistent underlying price pressure.
Quote of the Week
"A good plan prepares you for what you expect. A great strategy prepares you for what you don’t."
— James Leung
About the Contributor
James Leung
Senior Wealth Advisor & Portfolio Manager, CIBC Wood Gundy; Founder & Director, 6ix Wealth Foundation
James shares market commentary, economic observations, and wealth management perspectives to help investors and business leaders better understand the trends, opportunities, and developments shaping today's financial landscape.
Read the Original Commentary
This article is based on James Leung's weekly market outlook originally shared on LinkedIn and commentary from CIBC Capital Markets.
Read the Full Commentary on LinkedIn →
Disclaimer
This article is intended for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Readers should consult qualified professionals regarding their individual circumstances before making financial decisions.
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